what falcons need to do to beat the eagles
The Eagles got a gift this weekend when the Atlanta Falcons vanquish the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Carte playoff round. This is not to suggest the Falcons are a pushover this calendar week, or that the Eagles should look past the No. 6 seed. The Falcons are the defending NFC champions and Matt Ryan is notwithstanding the reigning NFL MVP.
Just, gosh. Had the Rams won, the Eagles would be facing New Orleans this coming Saturday and at that place is no mode this Eagles team is beating that Saints team. (Remember that next calendar week if the Eagles win.)
That said, the Eagles head into the divisional playoff round as home underdogs against the Falcons, as the line opened at -ii.v in favor of Atlanta. Information technology's not oftentimes the No. 1 seed is an underdog in the playoffs, let alone to the No. half-dozen seed, but the Eagles' fortunes have changed over the terminal few weeks, to say the least. Meanwhile, facing the spectre of losing in the Super Bowl in historic fashion so missing the playoffs entirely, the Falcons went on quite a run the second half of the flavour, winning six of their final eight games, including iii of their last 4, to lock in a spot in the playoffs.
From Week 10 on, Atlanta crushed Dallas (had that game gone the other way, Dallas could take peradventure made the playoffs) and crush the Seahawks in Seattle (the game that ultimately decided the final playoff spot). They won at home to Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina (which locked their playoff fortunes and kept the Panthers from winning the NFC South sectionalization title), and lost only to Minnesota at home and at New Orleans.
And then, in the playoffs, the Falcons traveled across the state and made the Rams' offense — the best offense in the NFL — seem totally overwhelmed. The Falcons topped LA 26-13 Saturday night, dominating on defense and special teams, before setting flight for Philly as one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
And yet, when Eagles fans saw the result they were happy, considering they knew if the Saints won Sunday, the line wouldn't be two-and-a-half points. The Eagles actually have a chance this weekend. Here'south a look at how.
1 vs. 6
Let'south get a little history out of the way first. Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 12 teams in 1990, a No. one seed has hosted a No. 6 seed in the bounded round 21 times. The acme seed has a record of 16-5 in those games.
Overall in the playoffs, the No. 6 seed is half-dozen-sixteen against top seeds, as the Pittsburgh Steelers really shell ii No. 1 seeds en route to winning the Super Bowl following the 2005 season.
The Eagles have been involved in the 1 vs. 6 game several times in the past — most recently as the No. 6 seed, when the 2008 Eagles traveled to shell the New York Giants in the bounded round. That flavor, both No. 6 seeds won, an occurrence that happened in 2010 as well. Since 2010, though, the No. 6 seeds are 0-5 in the bounded round.
In Philly, the No. 6 seeds are 0-ii, every bit the Eagles topped Minnesota during their 2004 season Super Bowl run and vanquish sixth-seeded Atlanta 2 years earlier, before losing at home in the NFC title game.
Quarterback battle
2016 MVP Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz...only on of them is playing this weekend.
James Lang-Usa TODAY SportsMatt Ryan is an MVP. Nick Foles … is not.
When Carson Wentz went downward with his ACL injury against the Rams, Foles came in to assistance lead the Eagles to victory. For the side by side two weeks — including a solid offensive endeavor against the woeful Giants — many in town talked upwardly Foles as a viable fill up-in for Wentz, touting his previous stint equally an Eagles starter and his past playoff experience, admitting one game (which the Eagles lost to a No. 6 seed at home, for what that's worth).
Since and so, Foles has looked bad against Oakland (in a win) and worse against Dallas (in a brusque outing, which concluded in a loss), completing 53 of his 97 throws since being put into the lineup after Wentz's injury. His completion rate of 54.6 percent is more than than 5 pct below his career average. In his terminal 2 outings, Foles was 23 for 49 with one touchdown and two interceptions. His QB rating against the Cowboys was 9.3. No, that number is not out of x.
Ryan, on the other paw, was named 2d-team All-Pro by Pro Football Focus , backside Tom Brady. One could make a case that Ryan took the spot Wentz might have earned had he been healthy all season. Alas, with Foles facing Ryan this weekend, the gap in quality at the quarterback position is every bit wide as any matchup this season. The level of conviction each team has in their quarterback is, equally well.
Eagles offense vs. Falcons defense force
Let me backtrack for ane second. Foles is non facing Ryan this weekend. I said that merely to make this point: The ii quarterbacks in an NFL game never actually face one another. They both face off against the other team'due south defence. And yet, given that Ryan is the other quarterback, the Foles-led Eagles offense is going to have to score some points against the Falcons' defense this weekend. Probably.
The Eagles promise to be able to run the brawl against the Falcons, going so far as to rest Jay Ajayi in Calendar week 17 and for much of the week of practice during the bye. Wait Foles to hand off a lot this Saturday, but expect the Falcons to be ready for it.
Atlanta was 9th in the NFL in rushing yards against in 2017, giving up 104.1 yards per game. In total, the Falcons did finish up with a meridian-10 defence in yards and points against.
That'due south the bad news. The worse news is that over the last two weeks of the regular season, the Falcons defence force doubled downwards on stopping the run, holding Carolina to just 87 yards rushing on 24 attempts in the season finale win, while holding the Saints' ii Pro Bowl running backs to a combined 86 yards on 31 rushes in the Calendar week 16 loss.
MVP candidate Todd Gurley did rack up 101 yards on just 14 attempts confronting the Falcons defence force on Sat, but 59 of them came on just two plays. In the first one-half, Gurley had 45 yards on 8 carries, but exterior of a 26-yard run in the second quarter, he had 19 yards on the other seven rushes. In the 2d half, Gurley had 56 yards on six carries, merely his huge 33-yard run in the 4th quarter notwithstanding, Gurley was held to 23 yards on five carries equally the Rams had little choice just to abandon the run down two scores.
Every defence is subject field to chunk plays, which ways the Eagles are going to have to look for those opportunities with Ajayi, Corey Clement or LeGarrette Blount when they come. Considering otherwise, the Falcons are going to make Foles beat them. And he's given no indication he can.
Eagles defense vs. Falcons crime
Terminal year, the Falcons had one of the pinnacle offenses in football, Ryan was the league's best quarterback and Julio Jones was the most feared receiver in the league. And the Eagles beat out them at the Linc and held Atlanta to just xv points.
This season, it took a long time for the Falcons to go over the hangover of bravado a huge atomic number 82 in the Super Bowl, coupled with the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. This is a very different criminal offence nether Steve Sarkisian, and it's something the Eagles defence force hopes to exploit.
If the Eagles are going to win Saturday information technology'due south going to be in the trenches. Per Football Outsiders, the Falcons had the eighth-best offensive line in both run blocking and pass protection, giving upwardly simply 24 sacks this flavor. That volition be strength against strength, every bit the Eagles had the top-rated run defense force in the NFL, giving up under eighty yards per game on the ground.
The Birds had the 17th-ranked laissez passer defense in terms of yards, but according to Football Outsiders, the laissez passer defence ranked seventh in the NFL (though the blitz defense force ranked third.)
Perhaps this is an oversimplification of the state of affairs, merely if the defensive line of the Eagles tin can stop the run and make Matt Ryan beat them, then on passing downs disrupt Ryan enough to force bad throws that could lead to punts or turnovers, the Eagles have a shot.
Special teams
The Eagles' special teams oasis't been very special this season, but neither have the Falcons'. Having said that, Atlanta did strength 2 turnovers confronting the Rams on special teams, which directly resulted in their road playoff victory. The Eagles have dealt with injuries to the special teams all season, but none of that really matters now. They'll demand to come up big confronting the Falcons Sat. Field position volition matter. So will the crowd.
Home field matters
The Falcons were 10-half dozen this season, finishing the twelvemonth five-3 at domicile and v-3 on the road. The merely game the Eagles lost at home this year was the flavour finale against the Cowboys.
Last flavor the Falcons were 11-5 en route to the Super Bowl, winning more than games on the road than at home, with one of just two road losses coming at the Linc. The Eagles finished concluding in the NFC East in 2016, but were 6-2 at habitation.
In two years nether Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 13-three at home. And while the Falcons have proven to exist merely as expert on the road as at dwelling in that bridge, historically the franchise has not been peachy on the route in the playoffs.
Atlanta is ten-13 all fourth dimension in the playoffs, but only iv-10 abroad from home and 4-8 in route playoff games. The Falcons are 4-v in the divisional round, just accept never won a divisional playoff game on the road. If the oversupply gets loud, and the defensive line plays too as they have all yr, the Eagles have a shot.
Source: https://billypenn.com/2018/01/08/can-the-eagles-actually-beat-the-falcons/
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